(Easybourse.com) at EasyBours this Wednesday, June 25 this Wednesday, June 25, Sbastian Paris-Horvitz, research manager and Xavier Chapard, Sigger in LBPAM, share their vision in the allocation of assets for the next three months. SOCIT accepts a careful approach to the market market, especially on the market, which has been applied noticeably. However, it remains flexible to be able to take advantage in the event of consolidation. In this investment universe, favorable distortion is maintained for the benefit of fusion, especially Asian. LBPAM shows a neutral position in the area of sovereign obligations and predicts the absence of brand trend at Intrt rates. Within this sphre, the duties of priporal aunts are privileged compared to such -vigorous heart titles, which are less attractive in the current context. Surveillance of corporate CDIT is confirmed, with a loop access. In fact, this segment still offers an intrepid bonus in an environment in which the permeable risks decreased.
Below are detailed comments for the main allocation universes.
Between tense awards and uncertain flows: a cap for developing markets
While the foundations remain generally stable over the course of the month in the main areas, marked with stabilization – after the end of the publication season – expectations of action action (BPA) after 12 months, a remarkable point is a significant increase in
valuation. In Europe, P/E levels are on their 97. Percentile for 10 years outside the Covid crisis and the bonus at the risk of justice are for all developed countries, especially low after increasing bond yields.
We also have negative ETF flows for some countries like Japan, and a clear slowdown for the United States. In Europe, the situation is more confused with positive flows, but still focuses on local investors.
Therefore, the view remains slightly cautious about the developed tracks, both in Europe and in the United States. Location in Japan is again lightened due to the expectations of the currency.
On the other hand, this approach is more constructive, in Nova, whose valuation is adequate and the growth of profits, while the context of bonds is also more favorable (a decrease in rates in China). In addition, some countries in this area seem to be protected from world trade riots such as latam or indie.
Always favorable environment for convertible
After good performances at the beginning of the year, convertible obligations should benefit from always a favorable environment despite the limited potential of stock markets, because it benefits from attractive awards and because their convexes are beneficial for crossing markets during the uncertainty period.
Neutrality of sovereign duties, preferences for peripherals
Less pessimistic scenario about the American economy and prognosis more waiting -a -see feeding in the face of the uncertain trajectory of inflation, brings LBPAM strategists to conclude that the US bond market offers less value and therefore return to neutrality. However, the alertness is maintained with regard to the equilibrium and term bonus, which could be higher due to the absence of political will to reduce the deficit.
German rates are of low value. On the one hand, the end of the ECB relaxation cycle is already well integrated. On the other hand, the high financial needs of states, and especially Germany, will maintain pressure on long -term returns. However, a relative improvement in European peripheral states makes it possible to find attraction in the sovereign debts of these countries.
Finally, disinfectant factors (energy drops, euro area, wages, etc.) are strengthened and do not allow to predict the revival of the expectations of inflation in the euro area.
Strengthening over -uch
Overcoming is maintained on private obligations, especially on quality European companies (IG), while the credit premium remains reasonable before a less significant tariff, even though they continued in May.
In the most risky part (HY), strengthening before context is deployed, where the rates of defects should remain limited. However, strong selectivity is indicated, especially when it comes to companies affected by price increases.
In the long run, the European defense carriers should also be in the long run for assets for asset class.
There is some caution on the United States side, although the decrease in the risk of recession seeks to be more constructive.
Dollar, gold and oil: fragile stability in uncertain context
Recent depreciation of the dollar, given the uncertainties associated with economic and international policy of the United States, could occur in the short term. A decline in administration in the most extreme politicians and the caution
Infectionists could promote EURUSD stability at 1.13 in the short term. This means that the dollar remains expensive and the longer -term depreciation potential remains important.
Concerns about the growth and change of OPEC+ tactics (from prices to defense in the market) pushed oil down. At these levels, there are in a scenario where we avoid global recession, download strength. In particular, the profitability of American manufacturers is assigned. With favorable seasonality in the coming months, the price could be stabilized between 60 and 70 USD/barrel.
Gold should remain stable, at a high level in the context of high geopolitical uncertainty, despite the interest rate that remains high.
WARNING
This item should not be a recommendation for purchase, sale or investment. It has no contractual value and in no way represents investment counseling. Based on this article, neither Easybours nor LBPAM can be responsible. The placement on the stock market is subject to fluctuations and whims of financial markets. Has a risk of loss of capital. The previous performance does not assume future performance. They are not constant in a timely manner and do not represent the future performance.
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