While the US stock market indices violate new records, tangible tension persists behind the scenes of the world market. The recent decoration bearing a trade agreement between Washington and Hanoj does not erase uncertainty: blurred monetary policy, persistent tariff threats, employment deceleration … Investors dance to a tense thread between hope and disillusionment.
In short
- The stock markets reach heights, but the economy sends conflicting signals.
- Trump blows hot and cold with a strategic commercial agreement and persistent pressure on the tariff.
- The dollar is weakening, gold and bitcoins benefit from increasing instability.
Calm on the surface, a basic storm
In the middle of the markets briefly found a smile. The S&P 500 closed the historic summit with 6,277 pixels, Nasdaq flew by 0.94 %, while Apple and Tesla set tone with solid power. Apparently everything is fine.
But this reflection of scholarships hides a distraction of nervousness. The euphoria was fed a surprising agreement between the United States and Vietnam, considered an encouraging signal for further commercial behavior. Donald Trump plays on the wire: By announcing this agreement several days from 9th July: Fateful Date for storing new prices. It blows hot and cold and nourishes the hope of compromise while maintaining pressure.
In parallel, employment data surprised … negatively. The ADP report reveals a loss of 33,000 jobs in the private sector in June, where analysts submitted +98,000. This Cold Rekinds market expects to expect money release. The Fed is thus imprisoned between the market that requires buoy and inflation still capricious
Trump, Chaos Craftsman or Time Strategy?
Donald Trump has not lost any of his ability to polarize markets. As he approaches 4 July, he pushed his “one big beautiful account”: a massive budget while launching a new tariff offensive. The agreement with Vietnam, even though Wall Street is welcome, seems to be a tactical counterweight more than a diplomatic move.
This double game will set up a schizophrenic climate: investors want to believe in the stability found, but every tweet or voting in the congress can cause a shock wave on the stock market. Republican factions divided into tax law text further weaken the prospect of rapid voting. And Powell, President of the Fed, sees his maneuver space to reduce to sadness.
The dollar continues to pamper. Weakened by the upcoming budget deficits and pricing uncertainties, fold down in front of the main currencies. On the other hand, bond markets are now foreseen by September with more than 20 % probabilities. Dynamics that betray the range of basic stress.
Leak toward quality: gold shines, the dollar crosses
In the face of this explosive cocktail: uncertain growth, abyss abyss, tension in the business area, investors adjust their bets. Gold, a real thermometer of economic anxiety, appreciated 27 %since January. Bitcoins also find its strength, carried by growing distrust with Fiat currencies.
The table is paradoxical. Of course, the scholarship is rising, but it is a cautious, suspicious climb. Inability and everything can switch. Powell, under pressure, now points to Trump’s price policy and accuses him of blocking any space for maneuvering interest rates. This unstable environment is dominated by the feeling: stay. The trace of the tracks is a modified volcano.
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Evariste, fascinated by Bitcoin since 2017, has not stopped documenting on this topic. If his first interest focused on trading, he now tries to actively understand all cryptocurrency progress. As an editor, he tries to permanently provide high quality work that reflects the condition of the sector as a whole.
Renunciation
The words and opinions expressed in this article are involved only by their author and should not be considered investment counseling. Do your own research before any investment decision.