Bitcoin: Is the return to $112,000 credible? Traders look for four key signals
Bitcoin fell by more than 22% in one month, calling into question its momentum. However, behind this decline, several signals are converging for a possible return to the symbolic $112,000 level. As markets turn, institutional and retail investors are watching for four key factors that could reignite the uptrend. In the context of macroeconomic uncertainty and tensions in the derivatives markets, a recovery scenario can no longer be ruled out.
In short
- Bitcoin has lost more than 22% in 30 days, but according to several signals, a return to $112,000 is still possible.
- Macroeconomic factors such as inflation, Fed rates and US fiscal policy could create a favorable environment.
- The bond market through the TIPS ETF shows expectations of rising inflation, often correlated with BTC growth.
- Bitcoin’s development through 2026 will depend on the delicate balance between macroeconomic signals and confidence in the crypto ecosystem.
Four levers of potential bounce
While the flagship asset returns above $86,000 despite a strong dollar, Bitcoin’s return above $112,000 could rely primarily on global inflationary momentum and possible changes in US monetary policy.
The key indicator cited in the analysis is the iShares TIPS ETF, which tracks inflation-indexed US Treasury bonds. The asset continued its upward trajectory after testing technical support at 110.50.
Four factors could restore Bitcoin’s momentum. These levers are both macroeconomic, technical and structural:
- Interest rate and monetary policy: keeping key Fed rates above 3.5% until 2026, expected by markets at 78%, contributes to a low real rate environment that could support the adoption of alternative assets such as Bitcoin;
- Inflation and the bond market: The iShares TIPS Bond ETF index, which reflects inflation expectations, shows a rebound. This could signal a favorable environment for risky asset growth;
- Convergence with traditional markets: the potential inclusion of bitcoin-exposed companies in broader equity indices, particularly through adjustments by MSCI, could pave the way for increased institutional investment;
- Asymmetry in the derivatives markets: the options market shows a strong imbalance in favor of put options, which Julius Baer describes as “excessive bear coverage”. A correction of this asymmetry could accelerate the move to the upside, especially as the December deadline approaches.
These signals, while still uncertain, reveal favorable dynamics if the four factors converge.
Bullish scenario hampered by market caution
In addition to macroeconomic considerations, internal developments in the Bitcoin ecosystem could also play a determining role in price dynamics.
One of the main uncertainties concerns the position of MSCI, one of the most watched indices of global passive funds. In October, MSCI launched a consultation with investors on whether to exclude certain companies with heavy bitcoin exposure from its indexes, including Strategy ( MSTR ).
This decision, expected on January 15, 2026, could affect nearly $9 billion in passive exposure. Michael Saylor, founder and executive chairman of MSTR, responded by saying: “Strategy is not a fund, nor a trust, nor a holding company. We are a publicly traded company with a $500 million software business and a unique treasury strategy.”.
At the same time, the derivatives market signals a clear lack of confidence among traders. Thus, put options on BTC are currently trading at a 10% premium compared to equivalent call options.
This imbalance is interpreted as continuing pressure on market sentiment. A softening of this imbalance towards a premium of 5% or less would be necessary to anticipate a return to optimism. Added to this is the imminent expiration of $22.6 billion in BTC options scheduled for December 26, an event that could cause significant volatility, or even serve as a catalyst for a new phase of accumulation.
Bitcoin price oscillates between macroeconomic uncertainty and hopes for a technical recovery. If the signals remain mixed, the coming weeks will be crucial to assess the strength of a possible bounce towards $112,000. Caution remains the order of the market as a whole.
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A graduate of Sciences Po Toulouse and holder of the blockchain consultant certification issued by Alyra, I joined the Cointribune adventure in 2019. Convinced of the potential of blockchain to transform many sectors of the economy, I committed myself to raising awareness and informing the general public about this ever-evolving ecosystem. My goal is to enable everyone to better understand blockchain and take advantage of the opportunities it offers. I strive every day to provide an objective analysis of current events, decipher market trends, convey the latest technological innovations, and put into perspective the economic and social issues of this ongoing revolution.
DISCLAIMER OF LIABILITY
The comments and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and should not be considered investment advice. Before making any investment decision, do your own research.