Bitcoin Bottom Coming?

The loss of the average purchase price of short-term holders caused Bitcoin to fall sharply

During the month of October, the price of Bitcoin increased fell below the average purchase price of short-term holders (orange curve). However, this movement created a panic from these operators and BTC forcibly corrected. The course is now being developed below the orange curve :

As of 2023, it has a price of BTC the end of his repairs below the average purchase price of short-term holders. But buyers will have to react quickly because if the price stays stuck under the orange curveAND a 2022-like scenario could have happened. And in this case, the bear phase could be much longer than those known from 2023.

The goal is clear for Bitcoin: it will be necessary reset the threshold in the chain which is currently around $105,000.

Bitcoin price drops sharply below 365-day moving average

BTC has he bounced back very slightly on 365 day moving average in early November (orange curve). But unfortunately, buyers were too weakand the price dropped sharply after that below the 365-day moving average. This is the first time since the start of the cycle that BTC has fallen this far below the orange curve:

Despite this decline, moving averages in the above graph they always are bullish. The first capitalization of the crypto market can revive, but it will have to be fast move back above the 365-day moving average For avoid a a 2022-like scenario.

Market sentiment is the lowest since February

Indicator Crypto Fear and Greed Index (CFGI) was in the areaextreme euphoria several times over the past few months. But after down more than 35% to BTC, fear prevails in the cryptocurrency market. The CFGI indicator recently returned to 10lowest level recorded since February:

According to this indicator, the king of cryptocurrencies is va a period of bearish excess. And when CFGI is in the zone extreme fearwhich we are often entitled to significant rebounds on bitcoin. As at the beginning of the year, sellers could run out of breath again.

aSOPR indicates the bottom potential on BTC

Indicator on the chain aSOPR (adjusted output profit ratio) reads as follows:

• above 1 : a bullish momentum for bitcoin (as in 2021)
• below 1 : a bearish dynamics on Bitcoin (as in 2022)

In theory, be in bull run by that metric, one must stay beyond the line horizontal line at 1 :

The indicator has moved below the black line, but is already back above this important level. That’s why the situation is similar two previous fixes (early 2025 and 2024). for now, the bull run remains intact under aSOPRbut be careful not to spend more time under horizontal line at 1. Because in this case it could mean a worsening trend in place from 2023.

Key points to remember

Charts analyzed today suggest that the Bitcoin price is potentially experiencing a bearish overshoot and that the bull run may not be over. Despite everything, the bounce on BTC is still very timid and hoping for an end to the correction will require a return above the average purchase price of short-term holders.