3 billion users or bankruptcy? OpenAI’s dizzying bet

Digits with twelve zeros are circulating around OpenAI. We’re talking hundreds of billions like the weather. But these numbers are not profits. They are gambling. Future Liabilities. Maybe debts. Behind the glitter of artificial intelligence, the question looms: can OpenAI still maintain the financial momentum it has set? Or running to the data wall with an empty pocket?

Cloud Ogre or Billion Eater

OpenAI has partnered with cloud giants. $250 billion at Microsoft, $38 at Amazon. Total: 288 billion contracts for 36 gigawatts of computing power. Barely a third will be active by 2030. The rest? Pay, anyway. According to HSBC, the bill would reach $792 billion in 2030 and up to $1.4 trillion in 2033 if the course continues.

The bank’s analysts are not puzzled:

Given the close relationship between AI LLM, cloud and semiconductor companies, we believe there is an argument for some flexibility, at least from the larger players… less capacity will always be better than a liquidity crunch.

If Sam Altman wanted sovereign AI, he tied it to cloud empires. And these empires don’t give credit forever. Each payment cycle is more and more like a fight to avoid logistical bankruptcy.

Growth on credit: OpenAI’s big gap

OpenAI aims high: 3 billion users by 2030. Around 10% subscribers. That’s 220 million paying on ChatGPT – compared to 35 million today. It would be one of the biggest subscription services in the world, ahead of Spotify, almost on par with Netflix.

Although free cash flow is projected at $282 billion, asset disposals and cash flow estimated at $17.5 billion in 2025, the account does not exist. HSBC estimates an additional funding need of USD 207 billion by 2030. This is despite all efforts to diversify income sources or strengthen direct monetization.

The contrast is striking: the company is seen as a unicorn generating gold at every turn, but its financial flows tell a different story. HSBC bluntly describes it as a cash pit, not a profit machine. Even in its optimistic scenarios, the firm realizes that OpenAI will continue to subsidize the vast majority of its users in the coming years.

In the absence of massive fundraising – or spectacular growth – OpenAI risks continuing to heavily subsidize its services. Every dollar raised risks going directly into the pockets of cloud providers. The dream of “AI for all” could turn into a fiscal headlong rush, fueled by investor faith rather than actual revenue.

OpenAI and the myth of 220 million AI subscribers

The strategy is clear: monetize AI through subscriptions. The Plus ($20/month) and Pro ($200/month) plans are worth it. But 5% conversion today, 8.5% hope in 2030? The gap is wide. The hope also lies in targeted advertising, assisted shopping and even commission interfaces.

However, OpenAI is not alone. Anthropic, xAI or others are gaining momentum. OpenAI’s share of the now dominant AI market could drop from 71% to 56% on the general public side and from 50% to 37% on the business side.

And the use? They’re exploding… but not necessarily income. The free base is growing faster than the paying ones. “AI for all” runs afoul of the freemium rule: the more people you have, the more you pay to service them with computations, with no immediate return.

Key dates to remember

• $288 billion in cloud contracts signed;
• 36 GW of tied power;
• $207 billion remains to be raised by 2030;
• target 220 million subscribers, 35 million current;
• OpenAI’s share of the artificial intelligence market is expected to decline.

By 2026, OpenAI hopes for a $1 trillion IPO. This IPO would be a gamble to refinance global ambitions while establishing artificial intelligence as a technological pillar of the century. But will this uplift be enough to justify all the zeros already committed? Nothing is less certain in a world where speed sometimes trumps sense.

DISCLAIMER OF LIABILITY

The comments and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and should not be considered investment advice. Before making any investment decision, do your own research.